SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, June 5, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

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                      We Need Your Feedback!

The Smoke Management Department is planning to “upgrade” this product so that it more effectively meets your needs.  To assist us with this project, we are requesting feedback from you!

Below are a few questions to help you consider what changes would be most beneficial for you.  All ideas are welcome!

Is the “Short-Term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

Is the “Long-term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

How could the “Dispersion” forecast better meet your needs?

Is the “Outlook” useful?  What would enhance it?

Are the “Burning Instructions” clear and concise?  How could they be improved for your use?

How do you access the forecast product (i.e., Email; web page; telephone recording)?

We are considering discontinuing or upgrading the phone recording of the forecast product.  Is that something you currently use?  Would you use it if you could get your specific forecast from it faster?

Please Email your feedback to: Peter.GJ.Parsons@odf.oregon.gov

Thank you!

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Cooler weather builds for the weekend with shower potential increasing early next week.  An upper-level low in Washington will have a trough sweeping through Oregon late.  Showers arrive late and temperatures will drop below seasonable.  Mixing heights will be high.  Winds are expected from W-NW.

 

Sunday will be mostly dry though a few showers are likely in far northeastern zones.  Flow aloft will be from W between systems.  Light winds will be from SW-W.  Temperatures will be near or below seasonable with good mixing heights.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Showers increase on Monday with amounts up to 0.50”.  The next upper-level low will be offshore.  Winds will be from S-SSW.  Mixing heights will rise high.

 

A few showers continue Tuesday with the upper-level low into Washington.  Temperatures will sink below average.  Winds will turn to come from WNW-NW.  Mixing heights will be high.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.  Mixing height lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.

 

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the day.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 2200 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.  Mixing height lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NW to N at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, June 6 through 8, 2026.

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For Saturday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the SSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through N of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the WSW through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the S through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the S through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the S through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the S through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.